Commodity markets outlook, July 2015

Most commodity prices declined in the second quarter of 2015 due to ample supplies and weak demand, especially in industrial commodities (Figure 1). One main exception was the price of crude oil which rebounded early in the quarter on stronger demand but has since weakened owing to a still large global surplus. These trends are expected to persist for the rest of the year, with a modest recovery in 2016 (Figure 2). This issue’s Special Focus looks at China’s and India’s commodity consumption patterns. It concludes that demand from China, and to a lesser extent India, significantly raised global demand for metals and energy—especially coal—and less so for food commodities. This pattern reflected the countries’ different growth models and the way in which consumption responds to income growth.