Improving lead time for tropical cyclone forecasting: review of operational practices and implications for Bangladesh

The main objectives of this report are to: assess the current state-of-the-art tools and operational practices in tropical cyclone and storm surge forecasting, assess existing operational practices at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and regionally, and propose recommendations for improvements in the lead times of tropical cyclone forecasts for Bangladesh. The paper is based on a review of documentary research and consultations with stakeholders. Extensive discussions were held with officials at the BMD, the India Meteorological Department, and other weather services. In reviewing international operational practices, considerable focus is placed on the practices of the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, with input from a number of other well-equipped and well-staffed centers, primarily in industrial nations. Further analysis can be undertaken as a follow-up to this report.