Race to zero: how manufacturers are positioned for zero-emission commercial trucks and buses in Europe

The electrification of trucks and buses is gaining momentum, driven in part by ambitious regulations around the world mandating truck and bus manufacturers to reduce the emissions of their new vehicle fleet or setting clear sales requirements for zero-emission technologies. Additionally, governments have begun to make long-term commitments for a 100% phase out of internal combustion engine medium-and heavy-duty trucks. This paper analyses manufacturers’ market readiness to develop and deploy zero-emission commercial trucks and buses to meet this upcoming target. In 2020, zero emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) presented a mere 1% of new registrations in Europe. The vast majority of these, 95%, were battery electric, with a very limited presence of fuel-cell electric technologies. Still, the European share in the global zero emission HDV market in 2020 was just short of 3%. The market uptake is expected to significantly increase over the next decade, driven by several manufacturer announcements and EU-wide binding regulations regarding pollutants and CO2 emissions.