A rebalancing China and resurging India: how will the pendulum swing for Russia?

This report assesses the future impact
of two dynamically transforming economies – China and India
– on Russia’s economy. China is slowing down and rebalancing
its economy whereas India is rapidly expanding. What does
this hold for Russia? The report begins with a snapshot of
findings, followed by eight chapters. Chapter one motivates
the topic and identifies analytical and empirical gaps that
this report fills. Chapter two examines the current pattern
of trade between Russia and the two countries, and it
discusses how important – or not – China and India’s
economies are for Russia. Chapter three follows by
summarizing the results of three complementary approaches
for measuring Russia’s trade potential with China and India
(and also the rest of the world). Chapter fourth intuitively
describes the customized methodology developed for this
report; its major caveats and assumptions, and its possible
extensions (technical details, for those interested, are in
the annexes). Chapter fifth outlines four plausible
scenarios of the potential impact on Russia of changes in
China and India, and chapter sixth presents the results.
Chapter seventh explores the sensitivity of results to
changes key in assumptions. Finally, chapter eighth
concludes with emerging policy implications for Russia.