Heavy-duty emissions control tampering in Canada

This study provides a holistic assessment of the issue that facilitate emission control system tampering in heavy-duty vehicles in Canada and estimates the impacts of tampering on the emissions inventory and public health. Tampering significantly increases emissions compared to a counterfactual case where no tampering occurs. Through analysis of the best-available data, each percentage-point increase in the tampering rate in 2020 increases fleet wide PM and NOx emissions by 2%-3%. In 2040, by which point nearly all vehicles in the fleet should meet US 2010 or later standards, each percentage-point increase in the tampering rate would increase fleetwide PM emissions by 14%-16% and NOx by 48%-67%, depending on the province. A tampering rate of 1% is associated with 690 excess premature deaths and 11,700 years of life lost over the next 20 years. The explicit prohibition of tampering at the federal level, combined with adequate market surveillance and persuasive penalties, can serve as a strong deterrent against tampering. Inspection and maintenance programs with technical designs coherent with modern emissions control systems have the potential to be an effective hurdle against tampering. Additional targeted market surveillance activities, such as the combination of remote sensing screening with subsequent roadside inspections, can be an effective measure to identify and penalize tampering.