Covid-19 and tourism: an update

Tourism is one of the sectors most affected
by the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, the
number of international tourist arrivals
declined by 84 per cent between March
and December 2020 compared with the
previous year, according to data observed
by UNWTO. Based on a range of tourist
arrivals’ projections, the report quantifies
the potential economic effects of the
contraction in tourism in 2021.
The indirect effects are significant.
Due to linkages with upstream sectors such
as agriculture, a drop in tourist sales leads
to a 2.5-fold loss in real GDP, on average,
in the absence of any stimulus measures.
Based on three scenarios, one optimistic,
one pessimistic and one where the
asymmetric speed of vaccinations is
considered, the economic losses could
range between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion
in 2021. The results highlight the importance
of the vaccine rollout in getting global
tourism restarted and other mitigating
measures.